A world leading conflict prevention think tank says the UN Security
Council’s decision to blacklist six military leaders ‘undermines the renewed
impetus for a coordinated international approach to peacemaking in South
Sudan’.
Currently, members of the UN Security Council are seeking to adopt
sanctions against six generals, three each from the government and the
opposition sides.
But the Brussels based International Crisis Group (ICG) says the
sanctions would in effect punish past wrongdoing and risk compromising ongoing
peace efforts.
“The Security Council should hold off on this sanctions package and
reframe its South Sudan sanctions strategy,” according to the ICG.
It says none of the six named generals is responsible for the failure
to reach a viable peace agreement.
The government leaders targeted are: Major-General Marial Chanuong Yol
Mangok, commander of President Salva Kiir’s guard unit; sector one commander
Lieutenant-General Gabriel Jok Riak; and third division commander Major-General
Santino Deng Wol.
On the rebel side, the men named are: Major-General Simon Gatwech
Dual, chief of general staff for the opposition forces; Major-General James
Koang Chuol, commander of the opposition special division; and Major-General
Peter Gadet, the deputy chief of staff of operations for the oppositions
forces.
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| Ethnic tribal militias (seen above) have been trained and are fighting on all sides of the civil war |
The peace process remains under the auspices of the regional body,
IGAD, which has recently been augmented by a wider grouping, known as
“IGAD-PLUS.
However Warrior Insight analysts on the ground in South Sudan, and
with informed access to the IGAD led negotiations, feel it’s naïve to think
that a deal between President Salva Kiir and former President Riak Machar (now
leading anti-government forces) will result in real peace.
Warrior Insight says without formal acknowledgement of atrocities
committed by both sides, wholesale constitutional reform and adherence to the
constitution, alongside massive security sector reform and demilitarization of
the population, the civil war will continue and likely accelerate.
Warrior Insight believes a plausible analysis for South Sudan is
economic decay and or collapse and the gradual emergence of semi-autonomous
regions amongst ebbs and flows of sporadic armed conflict between varying
groups that are in addition to pro and anti-government forces.