Juba
-- SPLA military intelligence confirms it is receiving support from Uganda. This includes troops inside South Sudan as well as military assets including at least 4 helicopter gunships. This has visually confirmed within the last 30 minutes.
-- Limited small arms fire took place in Juba overnight.
-- A curfew of 18:00 to 06:00 is still in place.
-- Juba International airport is fully operational. Flights are running until curfew at 18:00.
-- There are rumours of a looming attack on Juba; however, there is no hard intelligence to confirm such a plan.
Bor / Jonglei
-- Fighting has ceased in Bor for now however the town is still under the control of Peter Gadet’s forces as well as other defectors from the army and possibly David Yau Yau’s rebels.
-- The forces in control of Bor are potentially receiving reinforcements from other parts of Jonglei, namely Akobo, Uror, Nyirol. It is unknown whether the reinforcements are from SPLA defectors or armed ethnic Nuer civilians or other tribal groups opposed to Salva Kiir’s government.
-- A larger SPLA offensive on Bor is planned.
-- An UNMISS field base in Akobo was attacked by armed elements yesterday. The Indian ambassador says 3 Indian troops were killed but there is talk that there are some NGO fatalities as well. The exact nature of the attack and number of casualties is not yet available.
-- A high number of civilians have taken shelter in the UNMISS compound in Bor. Others have fled to the bush and remain unaccounted for.
-- Relocation flights have taken off yesterday from Bor airstrip and have reached Juba safely.
Unity
-- Fighting has taken place in Rubkona, near Bentiu town yesterday and today. There are multiple casualties, including civilians. The main market was partially looted.
-- A high number of civilians have also taken shelter in UNMISS compound in Rubkona.
-- Fighting erupted between police and national security forces near the oil fields of Tharjath, an hour of Leer town, which is former VP Riak Machar’s hometown. The number of casualties in Thargath is unknown.
General analysis
-- Uganda is expected to play a bigger role in backing Salva Kiir
-- The situation in Jonglei is quickly deteriorating. Ethnic tensions are increasing in the state and to a lesser extent in the rest of the country.
-- Juba and other capital cities remain highly unstable and the situation can still escalate to violence on very short notice.
-- Some criminal elements might take advantage of the current situation to make some easy money. Looting, robbery, theft and other forms of criminal activity are now a major risk for NGOs and other organizations.