South Sudan analysis @ 1800 hours local 23rd December

The current crisis in South Sudan is officially breaking the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) into rival factions, largely along ethnic lines, particularly amongst South Sudan's two largest tribes, which are the Dinka & Nuer.

Well-placed sources say Division 8, which is n Jonglei State and at least half of Division 4 in Unity State are now aligned with former Vice President Riak Machar as Machar himself claims.

Division 9 in Upper Nile State is currently dividing itself but has not officially declared to be in support of Riak Machar.

Division 9 elements deployed to Ulang County fought each other last night and its believed most of the Dinkas in the barracks were killed.

It should be noted that fighting has occurred in at least 3 of Upper Nile State's 13 counties within the last 24 hours.

The strongly placed source also says that the Governor of Upper Nile has been asked by Salva Kiir to return to Juba as a show of support for the President and that if the Governor stays in Upper Nile it will be a tacit endorsement of Riak Machar's command of the greater Upper Nile region.

Division 6, in Warrap State, is reportedly loyal to the State Governor Nyadeng Malek.

Warrap is a Dinka tribal stronghold and the home state of President Kiir; however, Kirr and Malek were already at odds with each other personally and politically prior to the crisis because she was, allegedly, intending on backing former SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amum for the party's chairmanship prior to the eruption of fighting.

Fighting between elements of Division 4 and Division 6 along the border of Warrap and Unity States is plausible at the current time.